the 30-day truce in Ukraine: the first step to ending the war or new opportunities for the Kremlin?
12 March 20:41
During a press conference on March 12, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that during the proposed 30-day ceasefire, Ukraine and its international partners plan to develop a detailed plan to end the war. The main issues to be considered during this period will include:
- security guarantees for Ukraine after the war;
- mechanisms for monitoring compliance with the ceasefire;
- possible further steps in relations with Russia;
- conditions for holding elections after the end of martial law.
Since Ukraine has a negative experience with ceasefires with Russia, it is important to ensure clear mechanisms for international monitoring. Zelenskyy emphasized that technical assistance from allies, including the United States and the EU, would help ensure compliance with the truce and prevent possible provocations by Russia.
The President emphasized that after the successful implementation of the plan, martial law in Ukraine would be lifted, which would allow for elections to be held in accordance with Ukrainian law. He also assured that the government would not delay this process and that the elections would take place as soon as the situation stabilizes.
According to the President of Ukraine, the 30-day ceasefire should be the first step towards a peaceful settlement and create a basis for further negotiations.
Will Moscow observe the ceasefire in this case and will it be possible to bring peace to Ukraine?
A good option for Ukraine and a bad option for Russia: what do they imply?
Political analyst Oleh Lisnyi suggested that it would be quite difficult for Russia to agree to a “regime of silence” because, unlike the United States and Kyiv’s European allies, it has its own plans to destroy Ukrainian statehood. This is evidenced even by the statement of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said that a ceasefire can be agreed upon only after the causes of the conflict are eliminated.
“That is, if Ukraine disappears, then they can make some peace agreements. This is based on why it (Russia – ed.) cannot do this,” explained Lisnyi.
The political scientist points out that a clear “no” from Vladimir Putin regarding a 30-day ceasefire could well be a “bad story” for him, but good news for Ukraine.
“Because we don’t really believe Putin, the Americans do. And if it is so (created a situation – ed.) within American society that Ukraine almost provoked an attack by the Russian Federation, and now it does not want peace to be established, it wants to fight to the last and does not want to engage in constructive cooperation with the United States… Well, then Ukraine would demonstrate that it is willing to engage in constructive cooperation, to establish preconditions for the restoration of peace. And the ball is now, as Rubio said, in Russia’s court,” said Lisnyi.
In this case, there is a second option for Ukraine and Russia, which the political scientist, in turn, divides into sub-options. This option is that the Kremlin will be interested in a ceasefire because of certain favorable motives. But here it will face a problem called “how to sell it inside Russia”. After all, at least the top military leadership is interested in continuing hostilities, because the war in Ukraine increases their wealth
That is why the first option can be implemented, when Russia will not say “no” or “yes” but will focus on delaying the negotiation process. For example, the Russian side will insist on the creation of a working group similar to the one that was created in Minsk to resolve the military conflict in Donbas. This, according to the political scientist, will allow Russia to simultaneously continue its hostilities against Ukraine and not incur the wrath of the White House, headed by the US President.
How the anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany can affect the theater of operations in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin may be pushed to a certain extent to agree to a temporary ceasefire by the “Victory Parade” on Red Square in Moscow, which will be held this year, and to which the Kremlin has already invited some of its strategic allies.
Political analyst Volodymyr Tsybulko suggests that Vladimir Putin wants to make a big show on this day and create the illusion that there is no sanctions and information blockade of Russia. In particular, according to the expert, the Kremlin wants to make a special impression on the leader of China, who has already been invited to Russia for the celebration.
“There are factors that push Putin to this decision. Objective factors. I’ve looked at some Russian publics. (They are) already testing the waters to see how the population will perceive such an initiative,” Tsybulko said.
However, all of the above assumptions can be confirmed or denied only after Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin, which is scheduled for March 14.
“Trump is supposed to have a conversation with Putin on Friday. We will see what it will bring. Because so far, what the Ukrainian side is happily reporting to society is just an imposition of opinion. The impression is that the Ukrainian side will then pass off any desire of Putin as the desire of Ukrainians,” the expert warned.
Ceasefire “with nuances”: what can Russia demand for itself?
Given the context, Russia may make an unexpected move and agree to a ceasefire on the battlefield in Ukraine. But only after it receives a certain “compensation,” predicted exclusively for
“Perhaps these will be demands regarding Ukraine, for example, related to territorial control, or the creation of buffer zones, or the rejection of NATO, or the abolition of the decree on the impossibility of negotiations with Putin,” the expert said.
Ruslan Bortnik added that the Russian side could even voice conditions that would directly affect the United States. For example, easing the sanctions regime for the economy or demanding that issues related to the balance of nuclear disarmament be resolved in its favor.
“Obviously, Russia will make some demands. It is unlikely that Putin will simply abandon the very idea of a 30-day truce, because this will instantly make him “extreme” and responsible in the eyes of everyone for the ongoing war,” the political scientist summarized.
What is known about the 30-day ceasefire, which could be the way to end the war in Ukraine
on March 11, 2025, Ukraine officially agreed to a 30-day truce with Russia proposed by the United States to create conditions for comprehensive peace talks. The proposal, which emerged from lengthy discussions between U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, marks a significant development in the ongoing war. However, its success depends on Russia’s reaction and the willingness of both sides to abide by its terms.
Key components of the 30-day ceasefire proposal
1. A ban on hostilities. The ceasefire proposal calls for a complete cessation of hostilities, including rocket attacks, artillery shelling, and drone attacks along the entire front line and in the Black Sea region. The goal is to reduce direct violence and create conditions for diplomatic negotiations.
2. Humanitarian provisions. The ceasefire includes humanitarian measures, such as:
- exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Russia, potentially including both military personnel and civilians;
- return of Ukrainian children forcibly taken to Russia during the conflict, which is a key demand of official Kyiv;
- facilitating the provision of humanitarian aid to the affected areas, especially in the occupied regions, where there is a shortage of food, water and medicine.
3. International involvement and guarantees. European leaders have expressed support for the ceasefire initiative, emphasizing the need for long-term security guarantees for Ukraine. The United States and NATO are expected to monitor compliance and put pressure on Russia to honor the agreement. Discussions are also ongoing about a potential peacekeeping mission to oversee the ceasefire.
Next steps and challenges
The reaction of Russia is still unclear to Ukraine’s American and European allies. So far, US President Donald Trump is negotiating with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. But his country (Russia – ed.) has not yet officially agreed to a truce.
moscow continues its offensive operations, especially in eastern Ukraine. And some of Ukraine’s partner countries are concerned that the Russian Armed Forces could use the ceasefire as a strategic pause to regroup their forces.
Can a ceasefire lead to lasting peace?
Foreign political scientists and analysts now believe that if successfully implemented, the 30-day ceasefire could become the basis for a broader peace plan that would include
- security guarantees for Ukraine, possibly involving commitments from NATO;
- potential territorial agreements, although Kyiv remains adamant in rejecting Russian demands for concessions;
- lifting of sanctions against Russia, depending on its compliance with international agreements.
Reaction of the international community
The United States. The Trump administration sees the ceasefire as a necessary step toward a negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine. However, Republican lawmakers cannot agree on this issue. Some argue that continued military support for Ukraine is necessary to ensure Kyiv’s leverage in the negotiations, while others agree that it should be reduced or even stopped altogether.
The European Union. EU leaders cautiously support the initiative, but emphasize that any peace agreement must respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
China and the Middle East. Official Beijing welcomed the desire for a ceasefire but called for a more balanced approach, while Saudi Arabia’s role in the negotiations strengthens its diplomatic influence in world affairs.
