100 days to end the war: a red card or a gift for Putin
23 January 17:00
US President Donald Trump has instructed the Special Envoy for Russia and Ukraine, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, to end the war in Ukraine within 100 days. However, according to The Wall Street Journal in a January 22 article, the realization of this task seems extremely unlikely. At the same time, military observers consider this deadline a gift for Putin, saying that during this time the Russian army can achieve some success at the front. What’s behind the number 100 and who will make the final decision?
The appointment of Kellogg as the US President’s Special Representative for Ukraine is seen as the first step towards peace talks, which Trump intends to oversee personally. However, reaching an agreement with Russian dictator Putin will be much more difficult than the US president promised during his election campaign.
What can happen in 100 days on the battlefield?
Military observer Vasyl Pehnyo criticized Donald Trump’s statement about the possibility of ending the war in Ukraine within 100 days, calling it a gift for Putin.
“The idea of ending the war in 100 days looks like a reprieve for Putin, which will allow him to achieve his goals. It looks like he is being offered 100 days to expel Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region and fully occupy the Donetsk region. At the same time, judging by Trump’s statements, it is possible that he does not even know about the existence of the Kursk region or the presence of our troops there,” Pehnyo noted.
The observer also recalled that a similar thesis was first voiced by Trump’s adviser Keith Kellogg and immediately raised doubts.
“It does sound like a time for Putin to realize his plans. And after that, they say, if he doesn’t agree, the United States will take serious action against Russia,” Peño added.
At the same time, military expert Roman Svitan believes that it is too early to draw conclusions about the so-called gifts to Putin. He stated this in an exclusive commentary for
“Our stability on the battlefield directly depends on the supply of equipment. If the supply stops, the 100 days that Donald Trump’s team has set as the deadline for ending the war will be a gift to Putin. It is actually a carte blanche for the Kremlin to intensify its attacks and try to tear Ukraine apart, especially in the east,” noted Svitan.
At the same time, Svitan emphasized that there are no signs of stopping the supply of weapons from Western partners.
“At the moment we have confirmation that American equipment and ammunition continue to arrive. This is a key factor that allows Ukraine not only to deter aggression, but also to act more confidently,” added Mr. Svitan.
100 days for Putin and Trump’s ultimatum
Political strategist and managing partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group Taras Zahorodniy suggests looking at the 100-day deadline from a different perspective. In an exclusive commentary for
“In my opinion, these hundred days are not a deadline for Kellogg, but an ultimatum for Russia. Trump speaks to the Kremlin in the language of tough demands. His statement openly humiliated and insulted Putin, actually starting a public blackmail. This means that a meeting between Trump and Putin is unlikely to happen. Moreover, this is a signal to the Russian elites: ‘Remove this psycho. It’s up to you to decide how to do it, we are ready to talk to you further,'” Taras Zagorodny emphasized.
The expert believes that further pressure on the Russian economy, in particular through restrictions on energy exports, could lead to serious destabilization within the country.
“If the Trump administration fulfills its promises, Russia could be on the verge of economic collapse. Already, Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure are creating significant difficulties for the Kremlin. If the United States were to cut off all the inputs and outputs for Russian oil and gas, it would lead to an internal collapse. In such circumstances, Russia’s tactical successes on the battlefield will lose all meaning,” Zahorodnyi said.
The political strategist compared this situation to the events of the First World War, when the economic collapse of Germany forced its army to hastily leave the occupied territories.
A red card for Putin
Zagorodniy also emphasized that the tone of Trump’s statement was unprecedentedly harsh.
“No one has ever spoken to Russia in such language before. This is actually a ‘red card’ for Putin. He will definitely not go to a meeting with Trump now. But this is a signal not only for him, but also for the Russian elites: “Pay for everything, resolve this issue immediately.” Obviously, the task is set not only for Kellogg, but also for the Russians themselves,” summarized Taras Zagorodnyi.
Thus, the actions of the new US administration can significantly change the course of the war and force the Kremlin to seek a way out of a situation that is becoming increasingly difficult both on the battlefield and in the economic sphere.