“We won’t get 10 Patriot systems at a time”: aviation expert explains why Ukraine is not getting more air defense systems
17 April 17:11
ANALYSIS
Kyiv offered a ready-made solution: buy 10 Patriot batteries. This could radically change the balance of power in the air. But the response was silence. Why is the West blocking systems that could save thousands of lives? And whether 10 Patriot systems could really make Ukrainian skies safer – read more in Kommersant Ukrainian’s article
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced Ukraine’s readiness to purchase 10 batteries of Patriot systems from the United States, which are estimated to cost about $15 billion. According to him, some European partners are ready to help with financing. However, the key problem is not only money, but the physical availability of such systems.
“We respect the choice of the United States of America. But if we are not given or sold such systems, we are ready for any format. The issue is not about money. Some European partners are ready to help financially,”
– Zelensky said.
However, as military aviation expert Valeriy Romanenko explains on KShDU Media, the issue is not only political will or funding, but also a banal lack of systems.
“Ukraine will not be able to get 10 Petriots at once. There are simply not that many in Europe. At the beginning of the Great War, there were no more than 30 batteries of Patriot systems in Europe,”
– says Romanenko.
According to him, the allies are transferring these systems to Ukraine gradually – one or two units, sometimes individual components.
“We already have six batteries – six Patriot systems. Germany transferred the most – three batteries. The United States – one. Romania sent one of its own, and one more was a team effort. But this is the maximum we managed to collect,”
– says Valeriy Romanenko.
The aviation expert also notes that even these transferred systems have different effectiveness, in particular, in countering ballistic threats.
“The Romanian battery is a second-generation complex, PAK-2. It has a limited ability to shoot down ballistic missiles. And ballistic missiles are the main threat to us now. The PAK-2 works better against aerodynamic targets – cruise missiles, helicopters, drones, airplanes – but we can handle such targets with other means.”
Valeriy Romanenko
The situation is further complicated by the fact that other European countries have these systems in minimal numbers, and governments are not ready to “bare” their own defense against the backdrop of the Russian threat.
“Germany has only seven systems. Greece has more, but it is not very active in military assistance, mainly providing humanitarian aid. Spain has only three batteries. The Netherlands has three or four, and these are not full-fledged systems, but separate launchers, generators, and equipment,”
– Romanenko says.
He adds that even such close partners as Sweden cannot provide Ukraine with more at the moment because they are also concerned about their own security. It is not clear what is in Putin’s mind, the expert concludes.
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“They are not interested in money”: military expert on the political component of the decision
Despite Ukraine’s readiness to finance the purchase of Patriot air defense systems, the United States is delaying the decision to transfer the weapons. This was discussed in an exclusive commentary for
According to him, Ukraine’s strategy is balanced: Kyiv is not asking for free aid, but is looking for money on international markets and offers direct purchases to its partners.
“In general, the correct strategy of the Ukrainian government is to offer money to the Americans, to look for money in foreign markets. There are many different funds that can finance this – funds from the UAE, Saudi Arabia. Apparently, Ukraine has found sources of funding and is offering money to the Americans,”
– Stupak emphasized.
However, according to the expert, it is not the logic of security that interferes, but big politics. The United States openly declares its need for finance, imposes tariff restrictions to stimulate the economy, but refuses to make a favorable deal with Ukraine.
“Despite the fact that the American side insists every day at every corner that they need money, judging by their rhetoric, they are not interested in money in this issue,”
– noted Ivan Stupak.
According to Stupak, the key motivation of the United States is not to continue supporting Ukraine, but to end the war as soon as possible. And the sale of Patriot, in their view, contradicts this.
“They are interested in ending this war as soon as possible. And in their understanding, the transfer of Patriot to Ukrainians will, on the contrary, prolong this war. If it does not cause an escalation, it will at least significantly delay the possibility of signing any agreement,”
– Stupak believes.
Moreover, American politicians are not interested in the conditions under which the conflict will end and on what territories.
“The Americans are not interested in the territorial realities on which the war will stop, on what conditions. They do not care that it may arise again later. The main thing for them is to stop it now,”
– Stupak said.
In conclusion, the expert added that the political situation in the United States itself also influences decisions on armament. Especially given the growing influence of Donald Trump.
“Mr. Trump’s 100 days in office are just around the corner. The finish line is near, and he has no results. So I think the political issue is interfering. And so far, from the official rhetoric, we may not see any Patriots. Although, of course, everything can change,”
– Stupak summarized.
US reaction
Donald Trump has abandoned the $50 billion arms deal with Ukraine. This was reported by the German newspaper Bild, citing its own sources. In particular, we are talking about American Patriot air defense missile systems and missiles for them, which Kyiv was ready to purchase with financial assistance from the European Union, and potentially with funds from frozen Russian assets.
A single Patriot missile costs about €5.5 million, and Ukraine was planning to buy several units of these weapons to strengthen its air defense. However, as Bild notes, Donald Trump sharply rejected the offer, even though Kyiv did not ask for free aid.
The publication ironically notes that Trump “seems to be so concerned about fruitless negotiations with the war-monger Putin that he doesn’t even want to make money from Ukraine’s defense.”
When asked directly by the journalist whether he was ready to sell new air defense missiles to Kyiv, Trump replied:
“Zelenskiy always wants to buy missiles. But listen, if you start a war, you have to know that you can win it. You can’t start a war against an enemy that is 20 times bigger and then hope that someone will give you missiles.”
Trump
Will 10 Patriot systems change the balance in the sky?
If Ukraine were to receive 10 Patriot air defense systems, it could significantly affect the situation in the air and increase the security of the frontline regions. This was stated by aviation expert Valeriy Romanenko.
“10 Patriot air defense systems are almost complete protection of the frontline regions. Not completely, of course, but partially. Patriot works well at long range against aerodynamic targets such as cruise missiles or aircraft at medium altitudes,”
– explains Valeriy Romanenko.
According to him, a single Patriot system is capable of hitting air targets at a distance of up to 160 kilometers. This makes it possible to effectively cover large areas.
“If we talk about protection against cruise missiles, which usually fly at low altitude, these systems could cover the area over large cities. A dozen such systems could potentially protect the ten largest Ukrainian cities,”
– Romanenko notes.
However, the situation with ballistic missile defense is somewhat more complicated. Patriot can only intercept ballistic missiles at a distance of 20-25 kilometers, Romanenko said. This is because anti-missiles for such purposes are much smaller. One container of a conventional missile that works on airplanes can hold four such anti-missiles at once.
The aviation expert also clarifies that Ukraine has received two types of anti-missiles – PAC-2 GEM-T (sometimes referred to as SIRA) and PAC-3 MSE (MSI). The latter have slightly better characteristics – up to 35 km range and up to 32 km altitude.
“But even with the latest models, the area of coverage against ballistic missiles remains limited,”
– Romanenko concludes.
So, Ukraine has found the money. Ukraine is ready to pay. But the world is not ready to sell. Instead of missiles, there is political caution. Instead of air defense, there are empty promises. While the West is afraid of “escalation,” Ukrainian cities are losing lives every day. And in this war, every Patriot is not just iron. It is a chance to survive.
